“I hate turbulence in life, but also on planes.”
Christopher Plummer, Actor
I don’t fly too often these days; still, I can’t remember the last time I had a smooth flight. Have you noticed more bumpy rides recently? While I don’t have a fear of flying, turbulence isn’t on my list of favorite things. Well, I’ve got some bad news for nervous flyers. It turns out there is something else we can chalk up to climate change: more turbulence.
Flying is an exceedingly safe way to travel. Indeed, it has been over 14 years since we have had a fatal commercial airline crash in the United States. Considering the fact that the FAA manages over 16 million flights per year, these are stunning odds. Still, being safe and feeling safe aren’t always the same thing.
Planes are built to handle even the most severe turbulence, but that doesn’t mean it’s fun for passengers or crew. In extreme cases it can lead to injuries, but even minor turbulence can fuel passenger anxiety. It also causes more wear and tear on planes, increasing costs for airlines.
More turbulence
There has been a documented increase in turbulence as the planet has slowly warmed. A recent study looked at data from flights between 1979 and 2020 over the North Atlantic, and found an increase in mild clear-air turbulence of 17%, moderate of 37%, and severe of 55%. Clear-air turbulence is bumpy air that isn’t part of a storm, and it has increased over the continental United States as well. Ugh.
Is climate change to blame?
Warmer temperatures, caused by CO2 trapped in the atmosphere, create a tug-of-war between upper and lower level jet streams. This leads to changes in the speed and direction of wind (wind shear), which equals more clear-air turbulence.
You may be familiar with the warming stripes graphic by Ed Hawkins showing global temperature rise. His colleague, Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at Reading University, has created a similar graphic. This one helps us visualize the increase in turbulence over time. Red lines indicate more than average, blue indicate less.
What can we do?
Until we reduce the amount of heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, this side-effect of climate change is likely to get worse, not better. Until then, if turbulence makes you anxious, consider flying early in the morning or late at night when there tends to be smoother air. Oh, and keep your seat belt buckled when you’re sitting down. You’re welcome.
Let’s do something about climate change. Learn about it. Think about it. Talk about it.